Israel Government Bond Yield Curve

FAQ

• What factors drive changes in the Israel yield curve?

  
  Domestic factors include Bank of Israel decisions, inflation, movements in ILS, economic growth expectations, fiscal policy, public debt dynamics, and geopolitical risks. External influences include global interest rates, international risk appetite, capital flows, and demand from global investors for Israeli government bonds.

• What conclusions about future interest rates can be drawn from the slope of the yield curve?

  
  The slope of the yield curve provides information about the likely future path of interest rates and borrowing costs through four main configurations:
  

  • A normal slope suggests a gradual increase in, or stability of, interest rates. The current monetary-policy stance is viewed as appropriate, while further increases would be expected only if growth accelerated above potential; accordingly, long-term rates are higher than short-term rates.
  • An inversion signals an expected rate-cutting cycle, as market participants assume that currently elevated short-term rates are restrictive, will cool the economy, and will prompt the central bank to reduce rates in the near term.
  • A flat profile reflects expectations that rates will remain high for an extended period or uncertainty about the central bank’s next step. In other words, the market sees no basis for either a sharp rise or a rapid decline in rates, leaving the gap between short- and long-term expectations minimal.
  • A humped curve implies a volatile trajectory: rates first rise or remain near their peak over the medium term, before declining materially at the long end as economic conditions normalise.

• Which points on the curve are the key indicators of future economic developments?

  
  Macroeconomic analysis should distinguish between forecasting objectives. For inflation forecasting, maturities should closely match the relevant forecast horizons; for example, the 5Y–1Y spread can be used to assess the difference between inflation expected over the next five years and inflation expected over the next year. For forecasting real economic activity, empirical evidence generally favours the spread between the longest and shortest available tenors on the yield curve; in practice, the difference between 10-year and 2-year yields is often used.

• How do short- and long-term tenors differ in terms of the information they convey?

  
  The curve spans 1 month to 30 years and includes 10 points.
  

  • The short-end segment (1–6 months) is influenced by liquidity conditions and central-bank policy.
  • The mid-curve segment (1–5 years) reflects expectations for the economic cycle over the medium term.
  • The long-end segment (10–30 years) is influenced by expectations for economic growth and inflation, as well as geopolitical risk. The segment beyond 10 years serves as a barometer of confidence in the economy’s long-term resilience.

• When are the new Israel yield curve values published?

  
  The curve values are published on each business day for the previous trading day. For example, data for 6 May 2026 are published on 7 May 2026.