Is Trump losing his grip on the market? Sustained stock declines suggest the president's influence has waned.

The U.S. stock market is slumping as the Iran conflict remains unresolved. President Trump has a reputation for trying to curry favor with investors. But on Friday, some Wall Street strategists were wondering if he might be losing his grip on the market. U.S. stocks were tumbling, with the S&P 500 SPX on track to tally its fifth straight week in the red. The index hasn't fallen for five straight weeks since May 2022, when it tallied seven in a row, according to FactSet data. Investors' belief in President Trump's eagerness to de-escalate the Iran conflict has kept the stock market from even larger losses in March, Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told MarketWatch. Still, as the conflict drags on, some have started to worry there's no end in sight. "Psychologically, it's draining," said Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth, in a phone interview Friday. "Markest are grappling with the fact that they expected this to be over on short order." Recently, some have even begun to wonder whether Trump's ability to reassure investors by telling them what they want to hear might be starting to wane. Markets this week have been whipsawed by cease-fire developments surrounding the Iran conflict, with investors at times encouraged by progress toward ending the fighting yet unable to shake off worries about Iran blockading shipping of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz. "The risk is that constant flip-flopping and headline fatigue is starting to seriously undermine the efficacy of the 'Trump put,'" Barclays analysts said in an equity research note Friday. "The situation remains fluid and rather confusing." The so-called Trump put in markets refers to the president's potential to help spur a recovery by signaling a shift in policy, as seen with the epic rebound in stocks last year after he paused steep tariffs. "Trump appears to be losing his grip on the markets," said Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at StoneX, in a note Friday. "Investors no longer seem to take his statements at face value - if anything, they're beginning to trade against them, waiting for tangible proof before reacting." Oil prices remained elevated as the fighting in the Middle East continued, with West Texas Intermediate crude (CL00) trading at more than $98 a barrel on Friday afternoon. "Meanwhile, the war goes on, and the longer the oil shock, the more severe the stagflationary shock," the Barclays analysts said. "Iran does not seem to be in a rush to obey, Israel has intensified its strikes, and the U.S. is reportedly sending more troops in the region." See related: $120-a-barrel oil may be a tipping point that shifts Fed's focus from high inflation to recession threat Trump still appears responsive to pressure from markets. His Thursday announcement of the latest extension to his ultimatum to Iran occurred just after the S&P 500 registered its biggest daily drop since the start of the conflict. "Panic in oil, rates and equities was palpable" in markets on Monday before Trump extended to Friday the 48-hour "ultimatum he had set to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz," the Barclays analysts said. "After another day of market stress" on Thursday, they said, the ultimatum was "delayed further to April 6." Stocks were struggling on Friday. The S&P 500 was down a sharp 1.3% in afternoon trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA was falling 1.3% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP was dropping 1.9% after entering correction territory on Thursday. The S&P 500 was on track to deepen its March drop to 7.1%, according to FactSet data, at last check. The U.S. stock market's so-called fear gauge, the Cboe Volatility Index VIX, was rising Friday afternoon to around 30 - well above its long-run average of around, according to FactSet data, last check. Markets want to see a framework for stabilization in the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz reopened to crucial tanker traffic, said Schleif. This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

Is Trump losing his grip on the market? Sustained stock declines suggest the president's influence has waned.

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