Marvell Technology Stock: Raising Valuation on Bullish Long-Term Guidance

Investors may feel wary with Marvell stock tripling in the past year, but the immense growth makes us more comfortable. Key Morningstar Metrics for Marvell Technology * : $360 * : ★★★★ * : Narrow * : High Marvell Technology Stock Update Marvell Technology MRVL unveiled bullish long-term growth guidance at its 2026 investor day, implying 58% annualized revenue growth through calendar 2030. Management expects $80 billion in revenue and $30 in non-GAAP EPS at the midpoints, versus $8.2 billion and $2.84, respectively, in calendar 2025. Why it matters: Marvell's base case comes in more than 50% higher on the top and bottom lines in 2030 than our bullish model coming in. It agrees with our view that artificial intelligence demand is accelerating through 2028 and durable through 2030. Still, the rate of growth blew our model out of the water. * Marvell fully endorsed durable AI spending, calling for $3 trillion in AI capital spending in 2030 and supported by rising profitability and hyperscale cloud providers. We still see loss-making frontier labs OpenAI and Anthropic as material risks to this growth until they show they can turn a profit. * We like Marvell's focus on connectivity, a wide product set, and a diverse customer base. To us, it owns both depth and breadth across AI silicon infrastructure, despite being a relatively small compute player. We see management's targets as highly credible. The bottom line: We raise our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Marvell to $360 per share, from $300, on higher medium-term growth targets. Our fiscal 2031 (calendar 2030) revenue and EPS have risen about 40%. Shares still look undervalued to us, even after a 7% intraday pop.

Marvell Technology Stock: Raising Valuation on Bullish Long-Term Guidance

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